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The Phillies Have Earned Their Fans’ Impatience
By Tim Reilly
Published:
A hard rain fell in Philadelphia yesterday, forcing the Phillies to scratch their scheduled game against the Padres in favor of a twin bill today. The unexpected break in action offers an opportunity to take stock of the season thus far and ponder what lies ahead for the Phils.
With half the year in the books, the campaign to date has been a successful one. The Phillies have wrested first place in the N.L. East from the free-falling New York Mets despite some struggles on the road in the past month and injuries to key players on the roster. The starting rotation has staked its claim as the best in baseball despite alternating stretches of ineffectiveness and injury from Aaron Nola. Zack Wheeler continues to dominate, while Ranger Suárez seems intent on pushing the Phillies’ ace for Cy Young honors.
Cristopher Sánchez has taken another leap in his development after last year’s breakout campaign, and newcomer Jesús Luzardo has rebounded after two disastrous starts against the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays in which he coughed up a total of 20 earned runs over 5.2 innings. Mick Abel has come down to earth after an impressive debut, but his stuff is good enough to hold down the fifth spot in the rotation until Nola returns.
The bullpen is . . . well, it’s not great. The suspension of José Alvarado for taking Flintstones Vitamins has weakened a unit that wasn’t all that strong anyway, and the added punishment of losing the southpaw’s services in October will deprive manager Rob Thomson of one of his few reliable moves in high-leverage situations. The Phillies will likely cushion the blow by moving one of their lefthanded starters to the bullpen in the playoffs, but only Suárez has the experience of pitching in those big moments as a reliever — and he’s simply too good to take out of the rotation.
Jordan Romano has been erratic, to put it charitably. His ERA is over a touchdown, and he’s pitching below replacement value. His WHIP is an unsightly 1.551. His fastball is too often erratic, and his slider too frequently forgets to slide, hanging in the air and waiting to be launched into the outfield seats. He can’t hold runners on first base, so a walk (which he issues often) is as good as a double. Other than that, he’s been fine.
Matt Strahm, pressed into service to fill the void left by Alvarado, has struggled in the late innings. It’s not his fault — he’s not a closer. His fastball seems to have lost some of its velocity this season, and he has a maddening inability to put hitters away after working the count in his favor. What’s his out pitch? Strahm is still averaging over a strikeout per inning, so maybe I’m judging him unfairly, but I think he’s better served pitching in the middle innings. And I doubt anyone was comfortable watching Strahm on Sunday as he strruggled to finish off the Braves in the 9th.
One of the bright spots in the relief corps has been Orion Kerkering. After a tough start to the season, he’s emerged as the top right-handed option out of the bullpen. His most recent outing against the Braves was typical, featuring a fastball he can paint on the corners and an elite sweeper. Tanner Banks has also enjoyed a solid season:
Meanwhile, the lineup has remained largely unchanged during this recent championship window. The same flaws that were evident as far back as 2022 are still present, with undisciplined hitters that chase pitches out of the zone and struggle to drive in runs. Of the first-place teams in baseball, only the Astros have a lower run differential.
The series in Houston was a microcosm of the offensive challenges. The ‘Stros boast a formidable pitching staff and multiple lefties in the bullpen that can neutralize the tandem of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. With Harper out of the lineup, it was a good test of the depth the Phillies have among their starters and on their bench. The results underwhelmed.
The teams combined for a grand total of six runs in the three-game set. The Phillies themselves were shut out until the 8th inning of the final game, when Brandon Marsh hit a sacrifice fly to the warning track that plated Bryson Stott and (briefly) tied the game. The middle of the order was a black hole, with Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto failing to generate any power.
As he approaches 29, Alec Bohm is who he is, a dependable contact hitter who should not be relied upon as a slugger. Of his 89 hits this season, all but 20 have been singles. He puts the ball in play, sometimes to the club’s detriment. He’s hit into 13 double plays this season, slightly worse than the 11 Realmuto has produced this year.
J.T., always steady behind the plate, looks like he’s hit a wall at the plate. He’s not the 20-20 player he once was, which isn’t unexpected given his age and the number of games he catches, but the upshot should be his placement toward the back of the order. He’s not a run producer anymore, and the fact he was hitting fifth in the batting order is a major indictment of the choices at the manager’s disposal.
Which brings us to the enigma that is Nick Castellanos. The Phillies badly need power from the right side of the plate to balance the lineup and protect Harper and Schwarber. Castellanos was signed to be that guy, He makes $20 million per year to be that guy. He has the ability to be that guy. And yet, he’s never consistently been that guy, year-over-year, in Philadelphia. His OPS has never exceeded .800 in Philly, and he might struggle to get to 20 home runs in 2025.
His teammate in the outfield, Max Kepler, is stellar in the field and disappointing with the bat in his hands. He’s given the team very little offense, and his recently-aired frustrations about his playing time ring hollow given his lack of production:
Centerfield is another problem area, with neither Johan Rojas nor Marsh grabbing firm hold of the role. Marsh has been much better as a hitter, especially of late, raising his average to .257 after a slow start to the campaign. Rojas, who made it to the big leagues for his glove and not his bat, continues to be a one-dimensional player. His swing is too long and his bat too slow for a guy who should embrace a role as a high-contact, slap hitter who gets on base and is a constant threat to steal.
That said, Harper has returned after his latest stint on the IL, and his presence in the order should stabilize the lineup. His teammate in the $300 million club, Trea Turner, has thrived in the leadoff spot, serving as the catalyst for an otherwise sputtering attack during Harper’s absence.
This assessment is a bit pessimistic, especially for a club that’s 50-35 and plugging along despite its flaws. No team is perfect, and it’s a long season. Teams will go through peaks and valleys, extended success and protracted slumps, with the best clubs still standing when the summer ends and October baseball begins. The point Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes made after the Houston series is reasonable. Fans should relax and be patient. You don’t want to be Frank “The Tank” Fleming, ranting into a camera every time his Mets lose:
But it’s a challenge to keep one’s frustrations at bay when the same shortcomings that prevented this roster from winning the World Series for the past three years continue to hamper the lineup. Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations, adds to the concern when he publicly declares “we like where we are right now” and dismisses the idea of making a major trade at the deadline. Of course, Dombrowski might be trying to tamp down the trade market and posture as an executive who isn’t desperate to make a deal, but it hasn’t been his style with the Phillies to make the sort of roster-altering moves that were common in the Rubén Amaro era.
Although this rotation doesn’t need a Cliff Lee this year, the Phillies could certainly use a Hunter Pence-type move to solidify the outfield and inject this lineup with the power that it’s lacked. It would be even better if that player were capable of working the count, staying disciplined at the plate, and taking some pressure off everyone else. Otherwise, this team seems destined to repeat its destiny as a good-but-not-good-enough club. A contender, but not a champion.
The atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park in October is unmatched. Hell, it gets loud for games in June and July. If noise could hit, the Phillies would cruise to the title. Alas, it can’t, and the guys responsible for creating offense in this lineup have faltered too often on the biggest stages. It happened in the World Series in 2022. It happened in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS in 2023. It happened in the NLDS in 2024. And there’s little to suggest it won’t happen again without some intervention.
The time is ripe to make a move. The window to win, to take John Middleton’s trophy back, is open right now, and there’s no guarantee the path to the World Series will be this straightforward for the foreseeable future.
The price will be painful, involving prospects in which the club has invested in the hope they one day will be wearing Phillies pinstripes. The front office has held firm in keeping Andrew Painter and Aidan Miller in the organization, and that posture will not and should not change unless a generational player becomes available for trade. The next tier of prospects, however, should be on the table. Justin Crawford, Mick Abel, and Eduardo Tait would be enticing assets for any team looking to sell at the deadline and could highlight the package it would take to land a difference maker in the bullpen or in the outfield. Or both.
For as difficult as it would be to move any of these talented minor leaguers, there are no banners hanging in CBP for the successful development of Kyle Drabek, Jarred Cosart, Jon Singleton, Carlos Carrasco, or any of the other promising blue chippers the team has dealt over the years in pursuit of baseball’s biggest prize. Some of those guys panned out, while others struggled through injury or inefficiency before their careers petered out. None will be remembered as fondly in Philadelphia as the 2008 season.
So it’s time to go for it, Dave. No more tinkering around the margins. Take a big swing and change the trajectory of this club. Because, unlike the break from the heat a summer thunderstorm usually brings, there will be no relief for this Phillies team or its decision makers until they win when it matters most.
Tim Reilly is a freelance writer from Northeast Philadelphia. He can be reached at reillyt7@gmail.com.