The Phillies are one of two MLB teams to be listed at -400 or higher on the weekend series line. It’s really no surprise to see because the Miami Marlins are the opponent. Nothing is ever truly a lock in baseball, but it’s safe to say the Phils should win at least two games with Zack Wheeler throwing on Friday and Jesus Luzardo going against his former team on Sunday. Taijuan Walker on Saturday is the pitching wild-card for the Phils, but the Phillies bats should level out that matchup against Cal Quantrill. If you even consider spending money on the Marlins to win the series, well, I got nothing for you, that’s just a waste of money. You’re better off opening a NJ casino app and playing on that.

Miami really needs to win on Friday to have any chance of leaving Citizens Bank Park with a series triumph. Sandy Alcantara is opposing Wheeler in the series opener. Alcantara hasn’t been great in the first few starts since his season-long injury layoff. He gave up five hits, four earned runs and walked four batters in his last start against the Nationals. He hasn’t gotten through the sixth inning, either, which is important for the Phils given the lack of dominant arms in the Miami bullpen. Alcantara’s been one of the better aces in the majors when he’s healthy, but the Phils have gotten to him in previous meetings.

The all-of-a-sudden hitting machine Alec Bohm has a .346 batting average in 26 at-bats versus Alcantara. Nick Castellanos (.292), Bryce Harper (.308), J.T. Realmuto (.296 with 2 HR) and Kyle Schwarber (.303) all have impressive head-to-head numbers against the right-hander. In 2023, the Phils recorded 22 hits and scored 10 runs in three matchups with Alcantara, so yeah, the trends really skew in the Phils’ favor for Friday night.

The over on the Phillies team total of 3.5 runs appears to be the best bet with all those numbers in mind. The Phils scored at least four runs in seven of their 10 home games and they hit that mark in every game against the Giants. FanDuel has a 50 percent profit boost available for any MLB bet. I’d use that on the over 3.5 team total.

DraftKings once again has its No Sweat Home Run offer in place. I’d look to Schwarber or Harper for that. Lefties are hitting .269 against Alcantara, while righties are only hitting .103. BetMGM has a Home Run odds boost token, which I would use on whichever Phillies lefty you don’t use the DK offer on. ESPN Bet is offering two MLB profit boosts and bet365 has a 30 percent boost on any MLB SGP.