Aaron Nola is off to one of the worst starts of his career.

His 6.65 ERA through four starts is the third-worst ERA in all of baseball from qualified pitchers. His WHIP is the 4th worst in all of baseball. He got roughed up in the first inning of last night’s game, dropping a four spot to the Giants and putting the Phillies in an early hole.

Nola is in the 2nd year of his 7-year, $172M contract that he signed ahead of the 2024 season. The Phillies haven’t won a game that Nola has started this year. He’s walked four batters in back to back games for the first time in his career. Should we be concerned? I don’t think so.

(Here come all of the boomers that hate him and say he sucks and he should be cut)

Nola has never been an early-season pitcher. We know the Nola that comes around once the weather gets warmer and the sun comes out. Am I using weather as an excuse? No, because it’s just the truth.


Nola has a career 3.99 ERA in April/March. He holds a 3.29 in May, a 4.38 in June, a 3.27 in July, and a 3.12 in August.

Nola isn’t a flamethrower. In fact, his velocity is the lowest of his career through the first few games of his season. A lot of that seems to be due to how early it is and the cold weather. Is it a little alarming to see Nola in the 89-91 range instead of the 91-94 range? For sure. But Nola has never been a high-velocity guy, he’s always relied on his location to keep him in games. He’s also never been a walk guy.

Nola’s struggling with putting batters away right now. Rafael Marchan has caught 3 of his first four starts…he has a 7.47 ERA in those three games. He’s averaging 2.6 walks per game with Marchan, and walked just one batter in the lone game with Realmuto behind the plate in 2025. That was against the Dodgers on April 5th. I thought that was his best start.He went six innings, allowing seven hits, three earned runs, but only walked one. The Phillies offense killed him that day. The offense has totaled just six runs for Nola in his first four starts.

Nola was really good last night after the first inning. I thought the stuff was a lot better. The cutter worked in on lefties way better than it did in that first inning. I think it’s a mix of things right now for him. Getting used to Marchan, the weather, and just some early struggles.

Nola said his performance in the first inning last night was “unacceptable.”

I trust him to figure it out. He’s been here long enough not to just roll over and throw the towel in on the season after four games, which would be idiotic. Do you have every right to be concerned? If that’s what you want to be, then yeah. But I trust his track record more than I trust his performance through four starts into a seven month season.