Thursday’s first-round games of the NCAA tournament were mostly okay at best.

Sure, there were upsets from McNeese and Drake, but there weren’t too many classic games.

I bring that up because the mostly chalky results on Thursday should translate to an incredible second round on Saturday from start to finish.

Houston/Gonzaga has the potential to be the best game of the tournament, while Michigan/Texas A&M, Creighton/Auburn and BYU/Wisconsin could all be second-weekend-caliber matchups.

And then there’s the John Calipari/Rick Pitino battle between Arkansas and St. John’s that is chock full of storylines.


I’m not sure if we’ll see upsets, but damn, the quality of most of these games will be super high.

 

No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 4 Purdue (-5.5) (O/U: 143.5)

Purdue is only 3-6 against the spread in its last nine games.

The range in which Saturday’s spread is set, though, has been ideal for the Boilermakers to cover.

Matt Painter’s team is 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 5.5, 6 or 6.5 points. They are 8-1 ATS when you expand the range to between 5.5 and 8.5.

McNeese covered in all three occasions as an underdog this season. The Cowboys won outright against Clemson on Thursday and covered against Mississippi State (9.5) and Alabama (17.5) in nonconference play.

McNeese is 7-4 to the over when the total closed at 143 or higher. Purdue’s totals have closed regularly in the 140s.

 

No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 2 St. John’s (-6.5) (O/U: 143.5)

Everyone’s just here for the Calipari vs. Pitino showdown.

And while that pre-game drama is great, the contest itself might be one-sided in favor of the Red Storm.

The Johnnies are 4-2 ATS as a favorite between 6 and 10 points, but more importantly, from an objective standpoint, they know how to pull away from opponents and keep it that way, as evidenced on Thursday night against Omaha.

Arkansas went 4-2 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 points or more. Those covers were against Auburn, Kentucky, Texas and Vanderbilt, all NCAA tournament teams.

The eye test says St. John’s is far better, but Arkansas’ high underdog numbers could make you re-think the pick.

 

No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 4 Texas A&M (-2.5) (O/U: 140.5)

Texas A&M is the slightly better team ATS than Michigan. The Aggies are 17-13-3, while Michigan is 17-18.

Michigan won outright as an underdog three times at the Big Ten tournament last week. A&M is 3-5 ATS in its last eight games.

The over/under 140.5 is the lowest total set for a Michigan game this season. A&M is 2-3 to the over with totals of either 140.5 or 141.5.

Second-chance opportunities could aid the over. A&M is the No. 1 offensive rebounding team on KenPom. Michigan is 79th. Both teams also rank in the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency.

 

No. 11 Drake vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (-7.5) (O/U: 126.5)

Drake/Texas Tech will likely only get second-screen attention.

Drake is 12-20 to the under and at the slowest tempo of any team in the tournament.

Texas Tech is 267th in tempo, per KenPom.

But the one saving grace for the over? The Bulldogs and Red Raiders are both ranked in the top 100 in a majority of offensive categories.

Texas Tech hit the over in the only game this season in which the total closed in the 120s. Drake is 8-9 to the over for totals in the 120s, but the Bulldogs are 7-2 to the under in the last nine.

 

No. 9 Creighton vs. No. 1 Auburn (-9.5) (O/U: 151.5)

Here’s the money stat if you love Creighton: The Bluejays covered four of the five biggest underdog spreads against them. They covered spreads of 6.5 or more against Alabama, Marquette, UConn, and St. John’s.

Auburn is a regular in this territory as a favorite. The Tigers are an even 10-10 ATS when they are favored by nine or more points.

Auburn’s regularly been in the 150s for the over/under as well, but Creighton is 7-2 to the under when the total closed higher than 150.

 

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Wisconsin (-1.5) (O/U: 155.5)

If you’re eyeing over/unders on Pennsylvania sports betting apps and New Jersey sports betting apps, this is where all the points should be

BYU is 20-14 to the over and Wisconsin is 20-16 to the over.

BYU is 7-2 to the over in its last nine games and Wisconsin is 6-6 to the over in its last 12.

Both teams have incredibly high ranks in all offensive stat categories, so it would be stunning if this game is played in the 60s, or even the 70s.

 

No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Houston (-4.5) (O/U: 139.5)

Gonzaga/Houston could be the best game of the entire tournament.

The Zags are a top 10 team on KenPom, which is why Houston, the 1 seed in the matchup, is just a 4.5-point favorite.

The most stunning trend here is that Gonzaga has scored 80+ points in 12 straight opening weekend NCAA tournament games. Houston hasn’t allowed over 80 points in a single finish in regulation this season.

The 4.5 is the fourth-smallest spread in favor of Houston this season. The Cougars are 2-1 ATS as a favorite of five points or less.

 

No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 2 Tennessee (-4.5) (O/U: 132.5)

UCLA had one of the more impressive wins on Thursday with a double-digit triumph over Utah State.

The Bruins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. They are 4-4 ATS as an underdog, but they are 1-2 ATS as an underdog above five points.

Meanwhile, Tennessee is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games, but during that stretch, the Vols are 7-5 to the over.