A handful of the NCAA tournament’s heavy hitters are in action on Friday.

Top seeds Duke and Florida are two of the best teams in the country and two of the best programs against the spread.

The Blue Devils and Gators are the biggest favorites on the board, and while they should win big, covering might be a bit difficult.

The two largest over/unders of the first round are also on Friday’s board. The Arizona/Akron over is a popular pick, but the number set for the 4 vs. 13 game is actually higher than both teams have typically had this season.

 


Upsets to Watch

North Carolina over Ole Miss / Xavier over Illinois

At least one First Four winner has won at least one more game in the NCAA tournament.

North Carolina and Xavier fit into that category. Carolina is the sexy underdog pick because of how much it beat San Diego State by on Tuesday night.

Xavier is a strong underdog pick as well, though, since the Musketeers come into Friday with an 8-1 record in the last nine games.

 

Can UConn Continue Run? 

UConn not just won back-to-back titles in the last two years, but went 12-0 against the spread in those games.

UConn only went 14-18 ATS this season, but is a 5.5-point favorite against Oklahoma on Friday night. The Huskies were only 3-5 ATS in eight games this season when they were a favorite of between 5-10 points.

Sure, UConn could bank on its experience to win a game or two this year, but it doesn’t have that dominant feel to it and it hasn’t been great ATS either.

 

Highest Totals of First Round

The Arizona/Akron game on Friday night has the highest over/under of the first round at 167.5.

Alabama’s matchup with Robert Morris checks in right behind that with an over/under of 165.5

Akron and Arizona went a combined 38-29 to the over, while Alabama went 18-14-1 to the over.

Alabama plays at the fastest adjusted tempo in Division I, per KenPom. Akron ranks 16th and Arizona is 55th in adjusted tempo.

So, yeah, the totals do seem high for an NCAA tournament game, but there’s reason to believe the over will definitely hit in the Arizona/Akron game, and might be worth a look on NJ betting apps and PA sports betting apps.

The one caveat to the Alabama game is Robert Morris is a No. 15 seed and only ranks 141st in tempo. Bama could finish the game early and that might leave it to the walk-ons to finish off the over.

As for Arizona-Akron, only one game all season involving the two teams closed with a total higher than 167. Akron is 4-3 to the over when the total closed above 160, while Arizona is 3-0 to the under for totals over 160.

 

Duke/Mount St. Mary’s Features Two Excellent ATS Teams

Believe it or not, Duke and the 16 seed it’s playing, Mount St. Mary’s, are two of the best teams in the field against the spread.

Mount St. Mary’s is 22-11-1 ATS, while Duke is 22-12.

Duke is a 32.5-point favorite because, well, it’s been one of the two best teams in the country all year, but also Cooper Flagg is available to play after suffering an ankle sprain at the ACC tournament.

Duke is only 2-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 30 points this season and 4-3 ATS as a favorite of 24 points or more.

Mount St. Mary’s has been an underdog of more than 20 points once this season. It failed to cover a 24-point spread against Maryland, but that’s all of the sample size there.

The other 1-16 matchup on Friday features a Florida team that is 26-8 ATS. Norfolk State isn’t that bad at 17-11 ATS, but it doesn’t compare to the Gators. Florida is 2-3 ATS as a favorite of 24 or more points this season.