The best four-day weekend of the sports calendar kicks off on Thursday afternoon.

I’m personally going to be on my couch at 12:05 p.m. with multiple sports betting apps open and my 4-month-old on my lap to teach about High Point University and why the Denver altitude will correlate to unders.

A lot of other people will intently watch High Point/Purdue in Thursday’s first window because the Panthers have become quite the trendy upset pick.

High Point is the most bet moneyline underdog at BetMGM and the third-highest bet team on the spread at DraftKings.

The other trendy upset pick, UC San Diego, is part of the late-night slate against Michigan. UC San Diego is either going to prove everyone right, or Michigan wins by double digits (I personally think this is the outcome).


Anyway, here are some notable trends for the first 16 games of the opening round.

 

No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan (-2.5)

UC San Diego is the best Division 1 team against the spread.

The Tritons are 25-7 ATS and they are 6-0 as an underdog straight up and against the spread.

So, yeah, look, I get why UCSD is the trendy No. 12 over No. 5 pick. Michigan hasn’t been a beacon of consistency either.

However, Michigan has two seven-footers and UC San Diego hasn’t played a single power-conference team this season.

Just my take here, but I think Michigan blows the doors off UCSD and alternate spreads in the double digits are in play for the Wolverines, but I get why the upset bets are being made.

 

No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 Purdue (-7.5)

Purdue has three losses to double-digit seeds in its last four NCAA tournament appearances.

That alone should make you wary of the Boilermakers.

High Point has the nation’s second-longest winning streak and Purdue is just 3-6 in its last nine games.

One thing to note about Purdue: It has one of the best records to the over in the field at 20-13.

The only guarantee I can make here is that a ton of points will be scored and that this becomes the best game of the opening four contests.

FanDuel has a “Dog of the Day” promotion going for all four days this weekend. You can use a token to place a spread or money line wager on an underdog. Users who use that token on the lowest seed to win on each day gets a share of $1 million in bonus bets. With March Madness week, you’ll find some of the best NJ sportsbook promos and PA betting promos of the year.

 

Does Altitude Matter? 

The smart guys in the room will tell you heavy legs will affect the teams playing in Denver.

I’m one of those smart guys because I think Wisconsin having a short turnaround from Sunday afternoon’s Big Ten Championship Game to the first Thursday game in Denver will hurt the Badgers and the under is in play against Montana. The over/under is now up to 152.5, so that’s clearly not supporting my big dumb brain.

Anyway, the altitude really didn’t matter last year in Salt Lake City. All but one of the six winners during regional weekend in SLC went over 75 points. The 63-60 Dayton-Nevada was the exception not the trend.

It didn’t really affect the teams that visited Denver in 2023, either, as only two losers scored less than 65 points, so while our brains may think altitude is a factor, it’s proved to not be one.

Three of the four totals set for the Denver games are at 142 or higher. Only Yale/Texas A&M sits under 140.

DraftKings has a No Sweat Every Day offer throughout the first weekend for parlays. You could potentially use the totals in Denver as legs for that parlay. (I still like the Wisconsin under for what it’s worth).

 

High Under Cashers in Field

Louisville has the best winning percentage to the under among NCAA tournament teams.

Drake and Kansas also had under percentages over 60.

Drake is involved in one of the most stark style contrasts in the first round against a Missouri team that is 20-13 to the over.

However, the lowest total on Thursday’s slate belongs to the Houston-SIU Edwardsville game.

 

Houston is Most Trustworthy No. 1 Seed

Houston is a 28.5-point favorite against SIU Edwardsville, who ranks 215th on KenPom.

Houston annihilated teams ranked below 200 on KenPom this season. The Cougars’ average margin of victory in those four games was 42 points.

A year ago, Houston beat Longwood by 40 points in the first round, and in 2021 beat Cleveland State by 31. Both of those game were against teams ranked beneath 160 on KenPom.

Big point spreads typically scare people, but I think this is the one you should feel very comfortable with.

BetMGM has an odds boost token that you can use on Houston, or try bet365’s 30 percent profit boost on SGPs with Houston first half and full game spreads.