Okay, look, I get that you can be skeptical about the NBA play-in tournament. Hell, some of you have been checked out on the NBA since like mid-January because of the Sixers nonsense.

However, there are two single-elimination games on Wednesday’s slate, and if anything, I think we’ll get some excitement from four teams that are desperate to keep their seasons alive.

Heat at Bulls (-1) (O/U: 219)

The over is absolutely in play in Chicago tonight. Both the Heat and Bulls scored at least 109 points in each of their three regular-season meetings. The last matchup on April 9 finished 119-111 in Chicago’s favor. Miami and Chicago both were over .500 to the over. Chicago had a 53.8 cover percentage as well. The Bulls actually played some of the more exciting basketball in the last month. Are they good? Probably not, but you’d much rather see an exciting, up-tempo young team in a play-in game that a boring, defensive-minded squad.

Josh Giddey will probably be the most bet player in the Heat-Bulls game, and potentially on the entire slate. I mean, you’d try to bet him too after he went for 28, 16 and 11 last week against the Heat. Giddey’s props are super high, though, because of that. He is listed at over/under 10.5 rebounds and over/under 9.5 assists.


If those totals are too high, I’d look in a few different spots, starting with Nikola Vucevic, who averaged 4.8 assists per game in April. His assist prop sits at 3.5. Matas Buzelis’ over 12.5 points is worth a stab too. He averaged 13.4 points per game in April.

The Heat will rely a lot on Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, who combined for 48 points in the last meeting with the Bulls. I’d also look at Andrew Wiggins. He’s probably the X-factor that will push the Heat to a victory. I’d combine Wiggins & Buzelis to have 15+ points, Vucevic over 3.5 assists and 2+ threes for Herro and Kevin Huerter to fit the requirements of certain promos. FanDuel has a No Sweat Same Game Parlay available if you didn’t use it on Tuesday. DraftKings is offering a profit boost for each of Wednesday’s games. (You can also get the DraftKings casino promo code here)

Mavericks at Kings (-4.5) (O/U: 214)

Dallas’ season has been a complete disaster, but the Mavs are two wins away from the No. 8 seed. Neither of these teams are great against the spread. The Kings are 34-44-4, the worst number among any of the teams that directly qualified for the playoffs and the play-in participants. Dallas’ ATS record isn’t much better at 38-42-2 and it finished with a 1-6 ATS mark in its last seven games. The Mavs did close on a 13-4-1 mark to the over, while Sacramento closed on a 9-4 record to the under.

It’s difficult to find any player-prop trends from the three previous matchups since the two that happened after the Luka Doncic trade didn’t involve Anthony Davis. Davis averaged 23.5 points and 11.9 rebounds in 14 career matchups versus Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis has only averaged 15.2 points to go along with his 11.5 rebounds in his head-t0-head career against Davis.

The biggest player trend from both sides is Zach LaVine’s three-point shooting. LaVine knocked down at least four three-pointers in each of his last six games. You can use BetMGM’s odds boost token or one of ESPN Bet’s profit boosts on the over on LaVine’s three-point prop.