Phillies Win Total Sits at 91.5 Ahead of Opening Day

Expectations are high and the online debate is raging about the 2025 Philadelphia Phillies!

First and foremost, let me say if you try to treat a 162-game season like a 17-game NFL season you will drive yourself insane before Kyle Schwarber gets hot in June.

Anyway, the Phillies’ win total sits at over/under 91.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel lists it at over/under 90.5. The over 91.5 on DK is plus-money, the over 90.5 on FD is -104.

The Phils have improved by at least three wins over each of the last four years. The win total went from 82 to 87, to 90 to 95 from 2021 to 24.

The incremental rise in wins is exactly why expectations are so high, but it’s also hard to match once you get to the mid 90s because the National League East is tough at the top between the Braves, Mets, and Phillies.

Now, here’s the bright side: The Phils have 13 games, starting on Opening Day, against the Nationals and 13 games against the Marlins.

You would hope that at least 20 wins come from those games. Losses are going to happen because it’s baseball, but if you can get one-fifth of your win total against those two teams, it puts the season-long over in great shape.

The opening stretch against Washington and Colorado is huge, but I would note one run of games in May as important for building the win total. The Phils play the Pirates, Rockies and A’s over a 10-game stretch.

The next key run of games that stands out comes out of the All-Star break. The Angels and Red Sox come to The Bank for six games and then there’s a road trip to face the Yankees and White Sox. That’s an easy run of 8-10 wins, one that would be welcome to create momentum for the second half of the season.

Atlanta and the Mets are the biggest threats to the division crown. It is worth noting there are only three series (two with the Mets, one against the Braves) with those two teams in the second half. I’m all for a balanced schedule, but these teams have to play more meaningful games in August and September (just my take).

All things considered, September looks relatively easy. There’s a road trip to LA and Arizona, but there are two extended home stands and a series with the Marlins in Miami.

If the Phils live up to their potential, there’s a path to 91 or 92 wins. Whether that’s good enough to win the division remains to be seen, but that total will at least put the Phils in the playoffs.

Also notable is that on March 24th, the Phillies are tied with the Mets for the second-highest World Series ticket percentage at BetMGM. That’s 8.4%, behind the Dodgers’ 17.2%. Looking at handle, however, the Dodgers own 37.1% and the Phils aren’t in the top three, so while there’s a smattering of tickets on the usual suspects, bettors are high on the defending champs as they sport the league’s highest payroll.

Kinkead: I predict that in October the Marlins will be sitting at home like you and I, maybe playing blackjack online casino