
Phillies Mailbag: Roki Sasaki, Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, and Bringing Back One or Both of Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez
The Phillies offseason will kick off sometime this week once the World Series is over. It’s one of the biggest in recent years. The Phillies have options, and there are some big names that could turn the tide of this team.
Free agents? A big trade? Signing guys from overseas? Maybe a mix of everything? We’ll see. My Phillies Mailbag always kicks off on Twitter, where you can ask all of your questions. Let’s get into it.
Going to do another mailbag today for @CrossingBroad.
Drop any Phillies offseason questions down in the replies!
— Luke Arcaini (@ArcainiLuke) October 29, 2024
What are the chances Johan Rojas is starting on Opening Day?
I’d say about 40%. The Phillies like Rojas, but both Dave Dombrowski and Rob Thomson have addressed that he’s going to need to hit more to be an everyday player in this lineup.
Rojas’ goal coming into the 2024 season was focusing on contact, spraying the ball the other way, and being able to get more bunts down. It wasn’t pretty, but he was more successful when it comes to bunting. Rojas slashed .243/.279/.322 in 2024 with a .601 OPS and a 0.7 WAR in 2024. He accumulated a 2.4 WAR in 59 games in 2023. Do what you want with WAR, but that means something.
I wouldn’t say Rojas took a step back this past season, because it’s hard to compare his two years when one of them was two months worth of games. But the Phillies need Rojas to hit more, and they need a centerfielder that can get on base.
Will Jeff Hoffman or Carlos Estevez be back?
I think it’s one of the two. If you’re looking at the free agent market, their best move would be both of those guys returning; but I don’t think that’s likely. Don’t buy too much into Hoffman’s postseason ERA. It was bad, no doubt about it. But Hoffman also tallied a 2.17 ERA in 66.1 regular season innings. The stuff is there for the 31 year old.
Estevez was better in Philly than people made it seem. He logged 18 Ks and walked just 7 batters in 18 innings of regular season ball for the Phillies, and without a middle-middle pitch to Francisco Lindor in Game 5, I thought he was actually pretty good in October.
I’ll ask you: Hoffman or Estevez? I’d go Hoffman, but I would love both of them back, and I think that’s the best move for the Phillies based on the free-agent class.
Will the Phillies be in on Roki Sasaki?
They absolutely should be. I think they’ll struggle because teams with just as much money need him a lot more. The Mets will definitely be in. The Dodgers will throw out a number. The Yankees will be in the mix.
Sasaki has a career 2.02 ERA in the Japan Pacific League. He’s struck out 524 batters in 414.2 innings. Just watch this offspeed. Oh, and guess what he’s young:
Go get this guy, Dave.
Roki Sasaki’s Disgusting Offspeed Stuff. 😳
Good luck.
And, yes, he’s 21 years old. pic.twitter.com/s7G2H8rFgT
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 20, 2023
What month will Andrew Painter first pitch with the Phillies?
The Phillies are going to take their time with Painter; they’ve emphasized that multiple times. There is absolutely zero reason to rush Painter into a rotation that already has Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez.
What the Phillies do with the 5th starter role to begin the season will be interesting. I assume they’ll look for another Turnbull-like contract elsewhere. Taijuan Walker will most likely still be here, but he will have to earn the spot back.
My prediction for Andrew Painter’s first MLB start: July
Do you still expect Brandon Marsh to be on the Phillies next year? If yes, would he be the starting in left or center fielder and who do you think his platoon partner will be with the expectation marsh won’t start much against lefties?
I think the Phillies are starting to realize that Brandon Marsh isn’t an everyday player. The splits against lefties aren’t getting better. He struck out nearly 50% of the time against southpaws last year.
Brandon Marsh is a good bench bat. He gives you a spark with the way he can play. Another impact star this offseason should be at the top of the list, but good outfield depth needs to be right behind that. Maybe it’s somewhere in the organization, maybe it’s a free agent, maybe it’s a trade.
How realistic do you think landing Juan Soto actually is? And if we miss out on him, who is another outfielder you’d like to see in Philly?
Money talks, it’s as simple as that. But relationships matter, too. I think Soto’s past with Harper, Turner, Schwarber, and Kevin Long is going to play a factor. If we’ve learned anything about Bryce Harper in the offseason, he’s going to do what he can to help recruit.
I’ve talked a lot about Jurickson Profar, but with just one good season, it’s a bit of a risk. Tyler O’Neill can make an impact, but if you’re looking for a guy with quality at-bats, I wouldn’t dig too much into O’Neill. Cody Bellinger doesn’t make sense anymore.
Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez are the big ones. Two power bats that are proven to be elite. I’d prefer Teoscar there, but I don’t know if he leaves LA, especially if they win the World Series.
The Phillies have options, it’s just the matter of how the cards turn.
If the Phils don’t land Soto, do you see them pivoting to another FA, or trying to work out a trade for someone like Kyle Tucker or Luis Robert Jr?
I think a big trade is just as likely as a big signing. Kyle Tucker in this lineup would be a dream. He’s 27 years old, he’ll be 28 on Opening Day 2025. He’s a World Series Champion, 3x All-Star, Silver Slugger winner, Gold Glove winner, and has a career 139 OPS+.
He struck out 92 times in 157 games in 2023. He’s a disciplined hitter. Throwing Tucker into the 2-hole of this lineup would be incredible.
Who do you think will be delivering the blank check to Juan Soto?
I’ll do it. Just let me know how much he wants, and I’ll write it.