Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Betting Pick, Prediction (July 5, 2021)
Two teams that could desperately use a big offensive evening face off tonight in Chicago. The Cubs, losers of nine straight games, host the Phillies, who enter off an 11-1 trouncing by the Padres yesterday afternoon in Philadelphia.
Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make some Cubs vs. Phillies picks and predictions for this National League matchup on July 5, 2021.
Cubs vs. Phillies Betting Pick
Pitching Matchup: Zach Davis vs. Matt Moore
The Cubs will send RHP Zach Davies to the hill opposed by LHP Matt Moore for the Phillies. Both starters carry a 5.00+ ERA in their career starts against their competition in limited work.
| Team | Odds | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | +1.5 (-165) | +120 | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Phillies | -1.5 (+145) | -140 | U 8.5 (-110) |
Moore enters off his first outing to stay under the posted total in his last six starts. Seven of his last 10 starts have reached 11 total runs or greater. He has not lasted more than five innings in any start this season, averaging just four per outing, and we all know what 4+ innings of the Phillies bullpen can mean in terms of extra runs in a game this season.
Is this a good pitch by Matt Moore?#Phillies #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/dv9gwS3COd
— Hunter Brody (@Brodes81) April 17, 2021
Current Cubs have gone 13-for-45 (.289) off of Moore in their careers, averaging one home run every nine at-bats against the lefty. Anthony Rizzo (5-for-6, 2 HRs) and Joc Pederson (3-for-9, 1 HR, 4 BBs) have seen Moore particularly well.
As for Davies, he has been solid of late, lasting 6+ innings and allowing zero runs in three of his last five starts. However, two of his last three home starts produced 12 total runs, with one side scoring 10 itself. He allowed five of his six home runs this season here at Wrigley, as well.
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Davies’ home starts total 1.4 runs per game above his average this season, as he receives 5.6 runs per game of support in those home outings. His 11 night starts have seen his ERA balloon to 5.33, from his overall 4.32 number this year.
Current Philadelphia position players have gone 18-for-67 (.269) off Davies lifetime. Andrew McCutchen, if he is able to go tonight, has had particular success off the Cubs’ right-hander, going 5-for-14 (.357) with a home run, five RBIs, and four walks. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, McCutchen exited the ninth inning of the Phillies’ blowout loss on Sunday afternoon. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he misses this one.
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Phillies vs. Cubs Betting Trends
The Phillies managed just one run for the 10th time this season yesterday. Fortunately for them, they average 5.7 runs per game in their games following a one-run output.
The Cubs are returning from a 1-9 road trip, losing the last nine games, as mentioned above. The other two times they came home after a 7+ game road trip, they scored seven and eight runs in the first game back at Wrigley, with the last one producing 13 total runs.
Chicago’s last seven games against lefty starters have seen them concede an average of over seven runs per game. It’s no coincidence then that they have played just one game under the total in their last six against left-handers.
These two teams have not met since the 2019 season, but four of the last five meetings have produced at least 12 total runs, while six of the last eight head-to-head have sailed over the posted number.
Phillies vs. Cubs Prediction
That fact lends to a trend that the Phillies have played five of their last six games against the National League Central over the total. With eight of the last 11 here at Wrigley between the Phils and Cubs sailing over, we should expect more offense here tonight where the winds are expected to blow in a helpful direction.
Our Pick: Phi/CHC Over 11 runs
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