Sixers vs. Wizards Game 4 Odds, Pick, Prediction (May 31, 2021)
Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers pushed the Washington Wizards to the brink of elimination following Game 3 behind the big man’s playoff career-high 36 points. Now, Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook will look to avoid a sweep in Game 4 on their home court tonight.
Let’s take a closer look at the Sixers vs. Wizards Game 4 odds and make some picks and predictions for this May 31, 2021 matchup.
The Sixers won each of the last two games by at least 25 points, with two of the three games in the series thus far sailing over the total. We will find out tonight if the Sixers have another blowout victory in them or if the Wizards will show some fight at home to avoid getting swept.
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Sixers vs. Wizards Game 4 Odds (May 31, 2021)
Here’s the Game 4 odds for the Wizards and Sixers at DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | +7 (-108) | +240 | O 215.5 (-112) |
| Sixers | -7 (-113) | -295 | U 215.5 (-109) |
And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):
Sixers Bets We Like with a Philadelphia Win
Philadelphia 76ers -12.5 AND Under 233.5 Total Points (FanDuel Sportsbook +360)
We are taking a poke at fantastic returns on this adjusted line and total wager. We get to bump up the total more than a basket as a little layer of added protection. We will break this down further in the next section where we analyze our side/total selection for this game. For the Sixers’ spread, we are pushing it up over four points to enhance our returns on the combo wager.
Philadelphia laying double digits and then some is surely a risky proposition on the road. However, keep in mind that favorites in these NBA Playoffs are now 18-9 ATS and road favorites are a sparkling 8-1 ATS. Both the Clippers and Nets were road favorites yesterday and both won their games by more than this number.
We have also reached the point of this series where we have to consider the possibility that a clearly overmatched Wizards team could potentially lay down if met with another fast Philly start. Westbrook is hobbled, and outside of the first half of Game 1 when Washington came in having played two meaningful games that week and Philly hadn’t done so in nine days, the Wizards haven’t been competitive at all in this series.
Are they going to have the mental fortitude to try to climb back from a big deficit tonight? After all, the Sixers led by 14 at the half in each of the last two games and have not been outscored by Washington in even a single quarter since the first quarter of Game 1.
The Wizards have no answer for Embiid and if they start double-teaming him tonight after he called them out after Game 3 for not doing so, he’s likely to find the open guys for clean looks, further demoralizing Washington. Philly has been a quick-starting team for nearly a month now. if they do so again tonight, the Wizards might just lay down.
Click here to get the 76ers over the Wizards at 76-1 odds with FOX Bet PA. Get it in NJ by clicking here.
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Don’t Fear a Big Number
Philadelphia won 23 games this season by more than this prop’s -12.5 requirement. Fifteen of those wins by 13 points or more came when they were favored by 7.5 points or greater, like this game’s unadjusted spread. Philly was favored by 7.5 or more 27 times this season, meaning they covered this prop’s -12.5 number 55.6% of the time they faced a line of -7.5 or greater in the game. That’s a pretty solid percentage given that not one of those games carried with it the possibility of the other team quitting because its season was about to be over.
Philadelphia was a good cover team as a favorite all season. They were 33-23-2 ATS overall when laying points and a very respectable 16-11 ATS when favored by more than seven points (59.3%). It gets even more impressive when you consider Philly was 12-6 ATS specifically as favorites of 7.5-9.5 points (66.7%).
Will Washington Lay Down?
Washington has been beaten by 13 points or more 19 times this season, which is an exorbitant amount for a playoff team. Over half of the Wizards’ losses this year were by double digits, in fact.
The 76ers have defeated the Wizards eight straight times now, with four of those victories coming by 17 points or more. The two of those four that occurred on this court came by 26 and 29 points and were both this season.
We think it’s worth it to take a stab at this prop bet given that we already like the under to cash on its own without adjustment. That leaves the Sixers to cover this big number and we can wholly see Philly jumping out to another impressive start with its strong desire to complete the franchise’s first seven-game sweep in over 30 years.
The Sixers have scored 120 or more in five straight games and their defense has been absolutely elite. They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 107 points or less, allowing just 105.6 ppg across those nine contests.
In a series-clinching game, we expect a dialed-in defensive group for Philly, clamping down on Washington until they break the Wizards mentally and force them to accept that the series is truly over. After that, we are likely to see a mutually respectful coast to the finish by both teams, as there isn’t a ton of bad blood here.
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Sixers vs. Wizards Game 4 Pick
Even if we miss our mark and this remains a game throughout, there is plenty of empirical evidence to suggest this game can stay under the posted total regardless. For starters, the Wizards team total is roughly 110 for this one and the Sixers are giving up less than 106 per game in their last nine contests. A Washington output of 110 or less leaves Philly needing to post over 120 for the sixth straight time to beat this bet.
To put things in more of a global perspective across the entire season, Philadelphia only allowed more than 110 points 27 times across 75 games (36.0%). If you believe the Sixers win this one, you’ll be pleased to know they only gave up 111 points or more in 12 wins in the regular season (24.5%), only three of which were against teams still alive currently.
The Sixers, despite their recent offensive outbursts, only reached 121 points in regulation 17 times in 72 regular season games (23.6%). They were just a middle of the pack scoring offense, landing at 14th in the NBA with 113.6 points per game. Their focus has been on getting high percentage shots (8th best in field goal percentage) and winning via their defense which ranks in the top-10 in nearly every meaningful category.
An Elite Sixers Defense
Speaking of that defense, Philly was second in the league in defensive efficiency this season, behind just the Lakers. They are playing a Wizards team that doesn’t shoot the ball well at just 19th best in field goal percentage and 20th in 3-point field goal percentage. Philly is the league’s fourth-best team in field goal percentage allowed and also ranks 11th in defensive rebounding percentage against a team that is 20th in offensive rebounding percentage.
This is a long-winded way of saying that Philly is going to force Washington to take low-percentage shots early on and once the Sixers have a considerable lead, Washington will be forced to go outside to make up ground. They are poor from deep in general, and have particularly struggled of late, going just 10-57 from beyond the arc across the last two games (17.5%). More likely misses will undoubtedly end in one-and-dones with Philly holding that rebounding edge. The result eventually would become Philadelphia walking it up the court and using a majority of the shot clock to find a high-percentage look and shrink the remainder of the relevant game to protect their sizable lead.
Betting Trends to Know
The 76ers were a decidedly under-centric team on the road this season, playing 23 of 37 away games below the posted total (62.2%). They have played 14 of their last 19 road games under overall (73.7%) and 12 of their last 15 games as road favorites under the number (80.0%). Interestingly, Philly has also played 10 of its last 13 away games under against teams with above .500 home records (Washington was 20-18 at home).
Washington, being the league’s third-highest scoring team this season, will always carry a high total, but nine of the team’s last 13 here at home have stayed under including five of its last seven as home dogs. They have been a dead red under team after getting blown out, too. Eleven of their last 15 games following a double digit loss have gone under the total, including six of the last eight here at home. Those last eight home games following a loss by double digits at the Capital One Arena have produced an average of just 216.6 total points per game.
Game 4 Prediction
Expect tonight to make it five of the last six head-to-head meetings between these clubs to stay under the total when Washington is the host team.
Our Pick: Phi/Was Under 230 (DraftKings -113)
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