On April 15th, the Philadelphia Flyers are Lloyd Christmas from Dumb and Dumber.

According to Stathletes data, they’re at 6.4% to make the postseason as of Monday morning, so a lot needs to happen over the next couple of days.

From the AP:

…the New York Islanders can clinch a spot by winning at rival New Jersey. Meanwhile, the Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins against Nashville and Detroit Red Wings against Montreal are all trying to stay in the mix.

…

If the Capitals, Penguins and Red Wings all lose in regulation, Pittsburgh and Detroit would be eliminated, setting up a win-and-in matchup Tuesday night between Washington and Philadelphia. Things could also come down to Penguins-Islanders on Wednesday night.

Right, so here’s how it currently looks:

  • Islanders: 90 points (at Devils, vs. Penguins)
  • Capitals: 87 points (vs. Bruins, at Flyers)
  • Red Wings: 87 points, (vs. Canadiens, at Canadiens)
  • Flyers: 87 points (vs. Capitals)
  • Penguins: 86 points, (vs. Predators, at Islanders)

It’s gonna take a miracle. You basically need the Red Wings and Penguins to lose on Monday night and remain at 87 points and 86 points, respectively.

Washington losing would be helpful, but it’s not a make or break scenario since you’ve got to play them in the season finale anyway. The Caps/Bruins result will clarify what needs to happen in order for the Flyers to get through, be it an 89-point tiebreaker or some sort of 89 vs. 87 or 89 vs. 88 type of result.

There’s quite a bit left to sort, and we’ll have a more clear picture on Tuesday morning, but here’s a tiebreak scenario refresher in case you’re like me, and crossing circuits with the NBA rules:

If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order:

1. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).

2. The greater number of games won, excluding games won in Overtime or by Shootout (i.e., ‘Regulation Wins’). This figure is reflected in the RW column.

3. The greater number of games won, excluding games won by Shootout. This figure is reflected in the ROW column.

4. The greater number of games won by the Club in any manner (i.e., ‘Total Wins’). This figure is reflected in the W column.

5. The greater number of points earned in games against each other among two or more tied clubs.

  • For the purpose of determining standing for two or more Clubs that have not played an even number of games with one or more of the other tied Clubs, the first game played in the city that has the extra game (the ‘odd game’) shall not be included.
  • When more than two Clubs are tied, the percentage of available points earned in games among each other (and not including any ‘odd games’) shall be used to determine standing.

6. The greater differential between goals for and against (including goals scored in Overtime or awarded for prevailing in Shootouts) for the entire regular season. This figure is reflected in the DIFF column.

7. The greater number of goals scored (including goals scored in Overtime or awarded for prevailing in Shootouts) for the entire regular season. This figure is reflected in the GF column.

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